Acceptance rates at top colleges and universities decline every year. Acceptance rates at the top 50 selective schools fell from 35.9% in 2006 to less than 4.39% last year. These trends seem to only be accelerating.
However, the trend is not universal. the Common application reports That 73% of its 914 member institutions recognizes more than 50% of all applicants. This is up from 69% in the 2014-2015 academic year.
The craziest part of this trend is that the number of students enrolling in college has been Declining steadily since 2010. How does declining enrollment fit into declining acceptance rates? We dug into the numbers to understand the phenomenon.
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Top schools get more applicants
The driving factor behind the decline in admission rates to graduate schools is the growth in the number of applicants to these schools. Graduate schools that include major research universities and private liberal arts schools are seeing tremendous growth in the size of the applicant pool. While the number of people applying to college remains constant, the number of people applying to many top schools is growing.
The ease of applying to selective schools may be part of the story. according to Search from the Common Applicationan app used by more than 1,000 member universities, the average number of schools a person applies to through the Common App jumped 8% between 2019 and 2020. That was the highest single year of growth, but the trend toward students applying to more schools has been a growing trend for years. In 2013-2014, students submitted 4.63 college applications on average. In 2021-2022 this number grew to 6.22.
Not every school sees such huge gains. Nearly three in four colleges still admit more than half of the students who apply.
However, more selective schools see more applications, and many applications come from top students. Top students (those with strong academic performance and high test scores) apply to more schools than typical high school graduates. This means that top schools do not have to accept such a high percentage of students to fill their incoming classes.
The test changed everything
Optional selection refers to a direction where an applicant can decide whether to submit a standardized test score with his or her application. Historically, most schools required students to submit either work or the SAT. Today, fewer schools require students to jump through that hoop. Most schools that dropped the standardized test score cite improvements to the diversity of their applicant pool as the driving factor behind their decision. Analysts point out that dropping test score requirements results in more people applying to schools in the face of greater selectivity.
Whatever the reason, test selection has undoubtedly resulted in more students applying to schools without a test score. In particular, the most selective universities are seeing more applications than ever before.
While some universities took an opt-in position as early as the early 2000s, most schools were forced to become testing during the 2020-2021 academic year due to Covid-19 pandemic testing sites. Since that time, many schools have maintained their own testing mode, and students submit test scores Much less than they did before the pandemic.
Some schools have taken the elective trend a step further. For example, and The California higher education system no longer accepts the test Grades as part of the application process. The best students looking to attend these schools (which include some of the most prestigious public universities) can no longer bank on test scores to help them gain admission.
However, this trend is slowly starting to ease, with many schools in the top 50 on admissions tests.
Top schools use waiting lists to drive admission rates down
Every college wants to increase its yield, which is the percentage of accepted students who ultimately attend the school. Early Decision, where admitted students must decide by December whether they will attend the school.
Top schools also take advantage of waiting lists to keep acceptance rates artificially low. Students who are placed on a waiting list are in a “limbo” state between accepted and rejected. Those who commit to other colleges will request to be removed from the waitlist, while those who remain interested will remain on the list.
Colleges fill their incoming classes with “waitlisted” applicants if too few of the people originally accepted decide to attend. Reports by the National Association for College Admission Counseling (NACAC) 43% of schools use waiting lists With 20% of the students who were waitlisted, they eventually gained admission into the institution. However, the waiting process offers a significant benefit to selective schools that can fill most of their spots while maintaining a very low acceptance rate.
If they need a few students to fill a class, they can make targeted offers to qualified students who were not originally accepted.
Will prices continue to fall in 2026?
Given the increasingly competitive landscape, students who want to attend a major school feel the need to apply to more schools to gain admission to at least one selective school. At the same time, graduate schools are flooded with more candidates than ever before. This vicious cycle can continue to send applications higher and acceptance rates lower.
But the story in graduate schools is not the story everywhere. NACAC reported that overall acceptance rates have risen from their 2012 lows, and most schools are fighting over fewer students who will eventually enroll in college.
Bottom line
If you are a current high school student, you probably don’t have to worry that no school will accept you. Even regular students can gain admission to less selective schools, community colleges, and some selective schools. If you have your heart set on a selective school, you must be willing to play the numbers game. Without a systematic change to the college admissions process, you cannot be assured of admission to selective schools even if you are a better student. This makes you apply to a half dozen or more schools in hopes that one will let you in.
But senior students should remember that getting into a selective school is no guarantee of financial wellness. You may want to consider less selective schools that offer more scholarships and grants to help you cover the cost of your college education.
Editor: Colin Greaves
Reviewed by: Robert Farrington
The post College Acceptance Rates Decline and What It Means for Students appeared first on College Investor.
