There are many different ways to invest in the stock market – some people prefer to buy and hold, while others trade stocks on a more frequent basis. Day traders and other stock investors have lots of different indicators to measure performance and provide insights into when and how to invest.
There are also a lot of strange stock indicators and other strange hypotheses when it comes to stock market performance over time. I thought it would be fun to share a few things that have been very successful over time (there are, of course, thousands of others that haven’t been as successful).
Who knows, maybe there is some subconscious driving the performance of the markets.
1. Super Bowl Index
The Super Bowl Index is the belief that if the AFC (American Football Conference) wins the Super Bowl, there will be a decline next year (as measured by the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average), and if the NFC (National Football Conference) wins the Super Bowl, the market will rise.
The results of this are actually quite surprising. Since it was first introduced in 1978, it has been mostly right. As of the 2025 Super Bowl, the indicator has been correct in 42 of 59 games. That’s a 71% success rate.
The Super Bowl typically takes place in January or February, so some believe its timing can be an indicator of the overall market performance throughout the year.
2. Lipstick index
This is a bearish indicator, first introduced by Leonard Lauder – the head of the cosmetics company Estée Lauder. It indicates an inverse relationship between cosmetics sales and overall economic health. The idea is that when people feel uncertain about the economy, they turn to less expensive cosmetics like lipstick rather than more expensive items like dresses and handbags.
Although it has not been back-tested like the Super Bowl index, it has been shown that after the September 11 attacks, the Estée Lauder companies had a 40% increase in sales, and other companies recorded the same strange and unrelated trend.
3. Wall Street Jobs Index
This indicator makes a lot of sense. The more attractive the jobs are on Wall Street, the more likely it is that the economy is in a bubble. This index is typically measured by Harvard graduates who accept jobs in investment banking, private equity, and securities trading.
The indicator indicates that investors should exit the market if more than 30% of graduates go into these jobs, while investors should buy into the market if less than 10% of graduates go into these jobs.
It is difficult to decipher the results. It only gave sell signals twice, and never a buy signal.
However, in 1987, it gave a sell signal and the market collapsed in the fall, and it gave another sell signal in the dot-com boom of 2000 when the market fell by 9.8%.
4. Sports Swimsuit Edition Cover Model Index
Apparently, this is an indicator based on the country the cover model in the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit issue originates from. He points out that when the model is from the US, the S&P 500 will outperform its historical returns versus when the model is not – the S&P 500 will underperform.
The result was correct with some notable exceptions. Average annual return of The S&P 500 rose 10.7%. Over the past thirty years. When a US model appeared on the cover, returns rose to 13.9%, and with non-US models, returns fell to 7.2%.
However, the worst-performing model was American Marissa Miller, who debuted in 2008 and oversaw a 38.5% market decline. The Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition cover model index is getting harder to track these days, since SI now typically has several Swimsuit Edition cover models each year.
5. Carton box indicator
The cardboard box index is based on the fact that almost everything in the world is shipped in a cardboard box. Basically, the more demand there is for cardboard boxes, the more the economy will grow because factories are shipping the goods.
The opposite is also true. The less demand, the more the economy shrinks because fewer factories need the boxes. This strange stock market indicator was said to be used by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who would look at the index to gain insight into manufacturing performance.
Although the results have not been tested historically, in 2008, at the height of the recession, operating revenues for many cardboard box manufacturers averaged a 50% decline. This could be an interesting indicator to follow in the future.
6. Big Mac Index
This is an indicator for currency traders, and basically looks at the cost of a Big Mac in 120 countries. It was chosen because it is essentially the same in every country, and is sold in many places.
It’s based on the idea that the same item should cost the same everywhere. As a result, if you compare the price of a Big Mac using exchange rates, you can see if a country’s currency is overvalued or undervalued at the current exchange rate. The Economist first introduced the Big Mac Index in 1986 and maintains an interactive index Their website.
Bottom line
There are many different ways to invest in the stock market, and many paths to success. While it’s fun to look at strange stock market indicators, keep in mind that most of these “trends” are actually just coincidences and not something a serious investment strategy can be based on. However, that won’t stop me from rooting for the NFC in the upcoming Super Bowl!
What other strange or strange stock market indicators have you heard about? Do you use any of these?
